Research

What the evidence says, labeled honestly.

A new note most weeks. Each one covers a peer-reviewed finding: what it found, how strong it is, and what it does and doesn't mean. Notes are filed by the level of behavior they address, the same architecture as LEVELS. If the research changes, the note gets updated and says so.

How to read the evidence labels

  • Evidence: Established Replicated, meta-analytic or consensus evidence.
  • Evidence: Supported Strong peer-reviewed evidence, with caveats noted.
  • Evidence: Mixed Good studies disagree.
  • Evidence: Early Preliminary, small samples, or not yet replicated.
  • Evidence: Interpretation Brad's framework or synthesis, labeled as such.

Latest

Evidence: EstablishedTrauma & the mindOct 14, 2026

The willpower "muscle" didn't survive replication

Two large preregistered replications found the classic ego-depletion effect close to zero. Willpower is real; the idea that it drains like a fuel tank hasn't held up.

Hagger et al. 2016, Perspectives on Psychological Science 11(4):546–573

Evidence: SupportedPerformance & trainingOct 9, 2026

Exercise treats depression. The famous headline still overstated it.

Across about 1,000 trials, physical activity produced moderate drops in depression and anxiety. The "1.5 times more effective than medication" line came from a press release, not the paper.

Singh et al. 2023, British Journal of Sports Medicine 57(18):1203–1209

Evidence: SupportedThreat physiologyOct 7, 2026

ACE scores predict populations, not people

Childhood adversity raises risk across a population. As a forecast for any one person, an ACE score performs only modestly better than chance.

Felitti et al. 1998, American Journal of Preventive Medicine 14(4):245–258

Threat physiology

Evidence: SupportedThreat physiologyOct 7, 2026

ACE scores predict populations, not people

Childhood adversity raises risk across a population. As a forecast for any one person, an ACE score performs only modestly better than chance.

Felitti et al. 1998, American Journal of Preventive Medicine 14(4):245–258

Trauma & the mind

Evidence: EstablishedTrauma & the mindOct 14, 2026

The willpower "muscle" didn't survive replication

Two large preregistered replications found the classic ego-depletion effect close to zero. Willpower is real; the idea that it drains like a fuel tank hasn't held up.

Hagger et al. 2016, Perspectives on Psychological Science 11(4):546–573

Performance & training

Evidence: SupportedPerformance & trainingOct 9, 2026

Exercise treats depression. The famous headline still overstated it.

Across about 1,000 trials, physical activity produced moderate drops in depression and anxiety. The "1.5 times more effective than medication" line came from a press release, not the paper.

Singh et al. 2023, British Journal of Sports Medicine 57(18):1203–1209